Latest poll ·
Published results
Decided and leaning voters
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| Nate Erskine-Smith | 52% |
| Natalie Johnson | 24% |
| James Dann | 6% |
| Jennie Worden | 6% |
| Other candidates | 12% |
Effective sample size is not published.
How uncertain is the lead?
The reported lead could reverse.
Another named candidate aheadNate Erskine-Smith ahead
Share of simulated scenarios
0%
5%
10%
TieLeader’s advantage over the strongest named rival (percentage points)
| Lead in percentage points | Share of scenarios |
|---|---|
| -100 to -95 | 0.0% |
| -95 to -90 | 0.1% |
| -90 to -85 | 0.2% |
| -85 to -80 | 0.3% |
| -80 to -75 | 0.3% |
| -75 to -70 | 0.5% |
| -70 to -65 | 0.5% |
| -65 to -60 | 0.6% |
| -60 to -55 | 0.8% |
| -55 to -50 | 0.9% |
| -50 to -45 | 1.0% |
| -45 to -40 | 1.2% |
| -40 to -35 | 1.3% |
| -35 to -30 | 1.5% |
| -30 to -25 | 1.8% |
| -25 to -20 | 2.0% |
| -20 to -15 | 2.2% |
| -15 to -10 | 2.5% |
| -10 to -5 | 2.8% |
| -5 to 0 | 3.2% |
| 0 to 5 | 3.6% |
| 5 to 10 | 4.0% |
| 10 to 15 | 4.4% |
| 15 to 20 | 4.9% |
| 20 to 25 | 5.3% |
| 25 to 30 | 5.5% |
| 30 to 35 | 5.8% |
| 35 to 40 | 5.7% |
| 40 to 45 | 5.6% |
| 45 to 50 | 5.4% |
| 50 to 55 | 4.9% |
| 55 to 60 | 4.4% |
| 60 to 65 | 3.8% |
| 65 to 70 | 3.4% |
| 70 to 75 | 2.8% |
| 75 to 80 | 2.3% |
| 80 to 85 | 1.9% |
| 85 to 90 | 1.5% |
| 90 to 95 | 0.9% |
| 95 to 100 | 0.4% |
Small samples and just 6 historical ward races from one election cannot establish reliable win odds. How to read these scenarios.