The polls
Public mayoral polls tracked by this site, preserving which candidates and responses each firm reported.
Polling support over time
Candidates appear only where a poll reported them. See every candidate on the ballot.
Shares among respondents naming a candidate, including leaners.
Not used in the forecast and left off this chart: Scope Research (Oct 6, 2026). The poll archive lists it and explains why.
12 polls since nominations closed. Lines are fitted to these polls only.
Polling trend summary. Points show support among respondents naming a candidate, including leaners where asked. All-respondent readings are converted to this basis across all reported candidate choices. Smoothed lines summarize these comparable shares; they are not polling averages or forecasts. A candidate missing from a poll is omitted, not counted as zero.
- Olivia Chow: 12 polls shown, from 50.0% on Sep 5, 2026 to 47.2% on Oct 7, 2026. A smoothed trend line is shown. 1 chart point is derived from all-respondent shares; original figures remain in the archive.
- Brad Bradford: 12 polls shown, from 39.0% on Sep 5, 2026 to 44.3% on Oct 7, 2026. A smoothed trend line is shown. 1 chart point is derived from all-respondent shares; original figures remain in the archive.
- Chris Alexander: 10 polls shown, from 10.0% on Sep 5, 2026 to 9.0% on Oct 4, 2026. A smoothed trend line is shown. 1 chart point is derived from all-respondent shares; original figures remain in the archive.
- Odessa Paloma Parker: 3 polls shown, from 1.9% on Sep 17, 2026 to 2.8% on Oct 7, 2026. Only reported points are shown, without a trend line.
- Sarah McVie: 3 polls shown, from 2.5% on Sep 17, 2026 to 2.5% on Oct 7, 2026. Only reported points are shown, without a trend line.
The poll archive below contains every reported value and its source.
How the forecast has moved with each poll
Each candidate's chance of winning as it would have stood the day each poll was published, recomputed with the current model. It is not a record of what this site showed at the time. Polls are placed by publication date, since a poll can only move the forecast once it is out. As in the chart above, the line is a smoothed trend through the points.
11 poll releases published after Aug 21, 2026. Trend lines are fitted to these releases only.
Forecast history summary. Each point is each candidate's chance of winning after a poll release, recomputed with the current model. Smoothed lines summarize the direction of those points; the forecast itself changes only when a poll is published.
- Olivia Chow: 69.2% after the poll published Aug 25, 2026; 68.7% after the latest, published Oct 9, 2026; 11 releases.
- Brad Bradford: 30.3% after the poll published Aug 25, 2026; 31.3% after the latest, published Oct 9, 2026; 11 releases.
- Chris Alexander: 0.6% after the poll published Aug 25, 2026; 0.0% after the latest, published Oct 9, 2026; 11 releases.
Poll archive
“Other reported choices” totals only responses the poll lists outside the forecast candidate columns; a dash means none is supplied. This feed does not include question wording or respondent base.
| Date | Firm | Sample | Olivia Chow | Brad Bradford | Chris Alexander | Undecided | Other reported choices | Denominator | Survey method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1000 | 47% | 44% | — | — | 9% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Not counted separately | 45% | 42% | — | 8% | 6% | All respondents (Chow or Bradford only) | Interactive voice response (IVR) | ||
| Oct 6, 2026 | Scope Research Not used in the forecast | 3100 | 44% | 41% | — | 11% | 5% | All respondents | Online survey (text-message invitation) |
Why this poll is not used in the forecastThis poll is listed for the record but is not used in the forecast. Scope Research described its method only briefly: an online survey of people invited by text message, with no account of how respondents were chosen or weighted. Scope has not published earlier polls that can be checked against an election result, so there is no record yet of how accurate its polls are. Scope is also not a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council, the industry body that sets standards for Canadian polling firms. | |||||||||
| Oct 6, 2026 | Forum Research | 1604 | 46% | 42% | — | — | 12% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Nanos Research | 755 | 52% | 43% | 4% | — | 1% | Decided and leaning voters | Telephone and online survey |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 48% | 40% | 9% | — | 3% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1000 | 45% | 38% | 9% | — | 8% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Not counted separately | 47% | 41% | — | 12% | — | All respondents (Chow or Bradford only) | Interactive voice response (IVR) | ||
| Sep 27, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 48% | 39% | 10% | — | 3% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Canada Pulse Insights | 510 | 51% | 34% | 9% | — | 6% | Decided and leaning voters | Online survey |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Forum Research | 1014 | 46% | 35% | 6% | — | 13% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 47% | 40% | 10% | — | 3% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1000 | 46% | 38% | 10% | — | 7% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Ipsos | 1006 | 36% | 21% | 4% | 30% | 8% | All respondents | Online survey |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 50% | 39% | 10% | — | 2% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pallas Data | 808 | 50% | 39% | 8% | — | 3% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 49% | 38% | 11% | — | 3% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 47% | 40% | 10% | — | 3% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Forum Research | 1011 | 47% | 32% | 11% | — | 10% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 49% | 41% | — | — | 10% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 49% | 40% | — | — | 10% | Decided voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 1157 | 44% | 38% | — | — | 19% | Decided voters | Text-to-online survey and interactive voice response |
| Not counted separately | 48% | 52% | — | — | — | Not stated (Chow or Bradford only) | Text-to-online survey and interactive voice response | ||
| May 11, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 50% | 37% | — | — | 13% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 46% | 35% | — | — | 19% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Pallas Data | 735 | 44% | 26% | — | — | 29% | Decided voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 44% | 26% | — | — | 30% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Mainstreet Research | 802 | 43% | 17% | — | — | 40% | Decided voters | Interactive voice response (Smart IVR) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 40% | 18% | — | — | 42% | Not stated | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 39% | 16% | — | — | 45% | Decided voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 42% | 12% | — | — | 46% | Decided voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Forum Research | — | 36% | 13% | — | — | 51% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Not counted separately | 40% | 42% | — | 18% | — | Not stated (Chow or Bradford only) | Interactive voice response (IVR) | ||
| Aug 29, 2025 | Ipsos | 1001 | 33% | — | — | — | 67% | All respondents | Online survey |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Liaison Strategies | 1000 | 39% | 8% | — | — | 53% | Decided voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Pallas Data | 611 | 37% | 14% | — | — | 49% | Decided and leaning voters | Interactive voice response (IVR) |
Pollsters in the archive
- Liaison Strategies — 15 polls
- Mainstreet Research — 5 polls
- Forum Research — 4 polls
- Pallas Data — 3 polls
- Ipsos — 2 polls
- Canada Pulse Insights — 1 poll
- Nanos Research — 1 poll
- Scope Research — 1 poll