Olivia Chow is favoured to win
Chow finishes ahead of Bradford in 69% of simulated elections.
Forecast for election day, Oct 26, 2026. Evidence through Oct 7, 2026.
How far apart Chow and Bradford are likely to finish
Explore the simulated results
Each row applies one source of doubt, on its own, to today’s gap between Chow and Bradford. The last row is all three together: the forecast.
The number at the right is each source’s share of the uncertainty; the three add up to 100%. Bands are the middle 80% of simulated outcomes, the tick the middle; the bands themselves do not add.
What is behind these numbers
One statistical model, fitted to the 16 published polls of the certified field and to seven past Toronto mayoral campaigns, produces 16,000 simulated elections. Every number above is a summary of those same simulations.
Other candidates, including Chris Alexander, who ended his campaign on Oct. 6: 50 certified candidates, including Odessa Paloma Parker and Sarah McVie, modelled together.
What the latest poll found
Candidates appear only where a poll reported them. See every candidate on the ballot.
Mainstreet Research , Oct 7, 2026, 1,000 respondents by interactive voice response (IVR), decided and leaning voters: Olivia Chow 47%, Brad Bradford 44%, other reported choices 9%.
Mainstreet Research’s Oct. 7 poll also asked the same respondents to choose between only Chow and Bradford. Of all respondents: Chow 45%, Bradford 42%, neither 6%, undecided 8%. It is shown for reference and not counted as a separate poll.
See all mayoral polls and the trend →